Copper Prices Declined Last Friday Night; Overseas Macro Disturbances May Materialize as the New President Takes Office [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM January 20 News: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,263/mt, briefly reaching a high of $9,274/mt at the beginning of the session. It then trended downward, hitting a low of $9,124/mt during the session, before slightly rebounding to close at $9,181.5/mt, down 0.69%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 76,340 yuan/mt, briefly reaching a high of 76,380 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. It then trended downward, hitting a low of 75,540 yuan/mt during the session, before slightly rebounding to close at 75,800 yuan/mt, down 0.76%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 165,000 lots. Macro side, supported by the resilience of the US economy and employment, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts paused in January. The US Fed's monetary policy outlook gradually shifted to a hawkish stance, and before further data validation, the market is likely to lean toward a predominantly hawkish sentiment, which is bearish for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, market liquidity improved compared to earlier, but tight supply sentiment persists. On the consumption side, as year-end approaches, spot market transactions were moderate. Additionally, with copper prices continuing to rise during last Friday's session, downstream consumption remained weak, and spot premiums are expected to decline further today. Price-wise, with the new president taking office, there is uncertainty regarding the timing of domestic monetary policy adjustments. Copper prices are expected to face some resistance today.